Mac Observer's Michael Munger proposes that the infamous MacOS rumor sites hurt both Apple and Mac-users in his latest Flip Side column.

I'm not nearly as rumor-phobic as Michael. His basic argument is that: "Many people refuse to buy a new Mac because rumor sites tell them that a new unit is coming tomorrow. Sometimes, rumor sites write checks that Apple can't cash when promising a product that Apple doesn't even plan to conceive. That hurts Apple's image, stock and profitability."

Yes, we have heard that many times from various rumor site bashers, most recently regarding the non-appearance of the new Pismo PowerBook at MacWorld Expo in January. I would suggest that a perusal of Apple's stock price chart over the past three months blows the theory to smithereens. When Pismo was not introduced at MWSF, did Apple's stock price tank? No. Did it recede significantly? No. Did it climb from the 80s to the 140s over Q1 200? Yes. The rumor sites had egg on their face, but that seems to be the real extent of the damage.

Now, since Michael specifically brought the Pismo affair up, and since I'm something of a PowerBook specialist, I'll take this opportunity to make a few more comments on this matter.

First, it was perfectly reasonable to expect Pismo to be introduced at MWSF, and I remain of the opinion that it would have been if unforeseen software development slowdowns had not cropped up. The Lombard PowerBook had been in production for some eight months with no official changes, and based on past history either a speed bump upgrade or a new model was due. Prospective PowerBook buyers didn't need "rumor sites" to tell them this. It was a matter of deduction and common sense. It is not as if PowerBook buyers -- at least ones who would bother to visit Mac rumor sites in the first place -- would be assuming that Lombard would be in production forever.

Secondly, while I treat new product speculation cautiously, the journalistic hat that fits me most comfortably is that of a consumer advocate. Ergo: my first priority is to help readers get the information they need to make purchase decisions that are in their best interests, not to worry about how those decisions are going to affect Apple's stock prices. I wish Apple well in the corporate arena, and I may even own a bit of Apple stock in one of the mutual funds I hold for retirement savings -- I honestly don't know -- but as a journalist that should not be a concern of mine.

When someone is going to lay out several thousand dollars for a new laptop computer, they deserve to be informed of all the relevant factors, and evaluating whether it is better to buy the currently available model, or whether some feature on the next model is worth waiting for, is perfectly fair game. I don't think very many individual consumers predicate their Macintosh purchase decisions on how their choice and timing is going to affect Apple's stock price, nor should they. For the record, my son bought a new Lombard in late January, in full cognizance that Pismo's rollout was imminent. He needed a new PowerBook immediately (his WallStreet had been stolen), and he is satisfied with his decision, even though if he had held off for another month or two he could have had a Pismo for the same money. That's the computer game.

So, Pismo has now been on the market for a month. It's a great machine. I expect that it will be PowerBook state-of-the-art for the next nine months or so. However, the rumor mill is cranking up again, with speculation that the next PowerBook (Mercury?) will have a "lite" version of the G4 processor, possible a "writable" trackpad, and maybe even a luminous keyboard. Cool stuff. And if one of those features, or others that are surely to be leaked as the months unfold, seems particularly enchanting to someone contemplating the purchase of a new PowerBook, it is in their best interest to know about it. (With the caveat that for all we KNOW, the next PowerBook could be another G3 with a standard trackpad and a plain keyboard).

However, I applaud Michael Munger's strong advocacy of investing in RRSP/IRA plans, starting at as young an age as possible

According to the Investment Funds Institute of Canada. someone who starts saving $2,500 a year at age 20 and stops making new contributions at 35 could end up with $1.5 million at retirement. If the investor waits until age 35 and puts away $2,500 annually for 30 years, the total nest egg is "only" $500,000 at age 65. (assuming a 10 per cent rate of return compounded annually).

Some Apple stock would likely be a worthwhile component of a diversified RRSP/IRA portfolio, whatever effect the rumor sites have.

You can read Micheal Munger's rumor-phobic column here:
http://www.macobserver.com/columns/flipside/2000/20000328.shtml

Charles W. Moore

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November 21, 2008