Individually, none of Apple's announcements at the MacWorld Expo are earth shattering, but taken together they paint a remarkable picture of Apple's vision of the future with important ramifications for the future of personal computing.

An Exposition Proposition

by Del Miller

January 9, 2000

This was a different sort of MacWorld Expo. From the keynote on, things proceeded along unexpected lines that both delighted and confused those of us who follow Apple. If I were to simply list the pronouncements from Steve Jobs, it would sound like a slow newsday in this rapidly spinning, Apple world. But as I've pondered what was said and what it all really means I've realized that this was in reality the most important and pivotal convention in the history of Apple and it marks a profound turning point in the future of the entire computer industry.

The consternation of many is understandable, for there was a vaporous air to the proceedings that made it difficult to get your arms around. When a company that makes ninety percent of its revenues from hardware sales fails to make a single announcement involving the nuts and bolts of its product line, you wonder if perhaps something might be awry. The presentation of the company's new OS consisted of a user interface demo for a product that will not ship for another six months, which prompts a collective headscratching over its significance. And when the single biggest product announcement falls into the nebulous sphere of website features you begin to wonder if this is really a computer company at all.

With the largest R&D budget in the personal computer industry, surely Apple could have somehow managed to drag some new iron into the limelight. The rumors and media expectations for new hardware, or at least upgrades of the old, would seem to be sufficient incentive for Apple to cast at least some sort of bauble before the crowd, but there was nary a mention. The analysis on the floor was that Apple was having trouble bringing its Next Big Thing to market and that the silence on the new product front was just a surreptitious ducking of embarrassing technical difficulties. But this explanation makes no sense to me: If Apple felt no qualms about announcing MacOS X a year before it becomes the company's standard OS, then surely Steve Jobs would have been willing to pre-announce some hardware -- that is, if it were important to do so. I think this technical delay diagnosis misses the real reason for the lack of a hardware announcement...

...They just didn't need to.

A new product costs Apple hundreds of millions of dollars to bring to market. When your current products are already selling faster than you can make them, dumping a new product on the market is not only a waste of your development funds and a drain on your manufacturing resources but it can distract the buying public from existing offerings whose sales are still accelerating. With 1,350,000 Macintoshes sold in the last quarter alone, it makes good business sense to hold the next portable, or whatever, in reserve for when the market curve of your current machines begins to flatten, when your manufacturing capacity can meet the existing demand and when the customer base has had a chance to absorb your last round of product releases. No mystery here.

Likewise, the preview of the nifty new Finder for MacOS X makes sense when you look at the complications of the application development cycle for a new operating system. Until now, public disclosure of the new OS was limited to its open source, Unix underpinnings. Developers have already had months to peek and poke into the internals of the system but only now is it necessary for them to see the full product in order to make their applications work at the user level. That means that the glitzy exterior of the new OS would soon be known to the world and that this particular Expo was Steve Jobs' last chance to announce the shiny new front end before the details were inevitably leaked to the world through third-party developers. Mr. Jobs is not the sort to pass up an opportunity for a grand entrance. Again, fully understandable.

Oddly enough, the really important news came from the least obvious direction...

...The new internet strategy

The portal that isn't a portal, would ordinarily be the least interesting news at a Jobs keynote, but this time is different, for this is where the plot gets really juicy. The importance of the new Apple.com goes far beyond the three new tabs across the top of the page. To appreciate the revolutionary aspect of Apple's internet strategy requires a bit of background.

A few months ago, I wrote a story called "Off to the Rhino Races" in my Difference Engine column at MacOPINION. In it I compared the rest of the PC industry to a hulking and dangerous rhinoceros and opined that Apple needed a moat, representing product differentiation, between itself and the rhino. In the article, I said:

"Apple now needs to dig that moat, dig it wide and dig

it fast. This moat must take the form of a market

barrier that clearly separates Apple's products from

the PC competition. It must be a simply stated,

unambiguous differentiation between the two worlds that

does not, in the process, remove Apple from what is

generally accepted as the PC market. Finally, the moat

must be a real difference that is nearly impossible for

the Wintel world to copy and sell...

 

There is but one moat that is enough of a market barrier

that the rest of the computing world can never cross.

That differentiation is Apple's position as the ONLY

competitor in the entire market that offers a

stem-to-stern computing solution. The Macintosh and the

MacOS are more beautifully integrated than any competing

OS could ever hope to be and this lends a powerful

advantage.

 

With full control of hardware design, OS products and

all of the various glues that hold them together, Apple

can provide a superior computing solution to the user.

Smoother, more trouble free operation, a single ear to

listen to the needs of the customer base, rapid

response to changes in technology and a unified plan

for incorporating future technologies seamlessly into

existing products. For all the diversity and choice in

the non-Apple universe, I truly appreciate the clean,

convenient simplicity of a single manufacturer

dedicated to a quality product."

Compare this with what Steve said in introducing the new Apple.com:

"It's true that Apple is the last company in our

industry that makes the entire widget, but that also

means we are the last one that can take responsibility

for the entire customer experience.

 

The enabling force behind the new Internet features is

that the same operating software is running at both

ends of the pipe. We are going to take advantage --

unfair advantage -- of the fact that we supply the

operating system to both the user and the

client. We can integrate that together in a way that

nobody else can and we are the last guys

in the industry that can do it."

Apple's internet strategy is far more than just a portal. For the first time since Microsoft Windows hit the desktop, Apple has staked out a territory that sets it apart from everyone else &endash; permanently. The Macintosh is no longer catching up to Windows, it has positioned itself in an unassailable fortress that exploits the single biggest advantage of the Macintosh.

This new plan is far more than an internet strategy, it is the pivot point around which turns every last one of Apple's best-in-class technologies. The computing experience for the Macintosh user will be a tightly woven mesh of Apple products, so clean, powerful, useful and convenient that the value of the platform will be leveraged far beyond the traditional advantages so commonly mimicked by the competition.

Imagine you are new to the computing experience, tentative and apprehensive about the intimidating complexity of the digital world. You will sit down at your shiny new Macintosh, pleased that the most capable hardware on the market is sculpted into a package that so appeals to your senses. The OS will be solid and capable of the most demanding tasks you can ask of it, but in such a transparent way that you will not be aware of it even when you see it working in front of you. It will sport an interface of simplicity and intuitiveness yet one that makes you smile as only a Macintosh can. Your setup procedure logs you onto the net in a few short minutes, ISP and all, immediately connected to the internet with email, browser and a fabulous roadmap to websites of interest. Your fears that the internet could expose your child to the seamy side of life are resolved by a simple password. Within days you have created your own website, sent your grandmother a homemade movie for her birthday, complete with a beautiful birthday card that she will delight in receiving.

Upgrades to your system will be automatic and technical assistance never far away. The pervasive warmth and excitement of the Macintosh community will ooze from your computer, channeled through the Apple oriented nature of your new home on the internet. Soon, you will stop thinking of your Mac as a machine, instead it will be a window into a world of people, fun and knowledge and the thought of ever leaving the Macintosh fold will never enter your mind.

The new Apple.com is not a portal, not even a marketing strategy in the plainest sense. It is a vision that everyone can benefit from an integrated offering of Apple products. The Macintosh will not be an internet appliance, it will be the hearthside of the twenty-first century. It is the internet for the rest of us.

The best of intentions

There is a fine but deep divide between vision and reality, and this kinder, gentler view of the future could easily be compromised by the cynicism of corporate marketing. Apple is a corporation and its goals, however noble, are constrained by monetary considerations &endash; considerations that could turn this opportunity for enhancing the world into simply a crass billboard for boosting the bottom line. Which way this particular wind will blow depends on the honor and intention of Apple Computer and on Steve Jobs himself.

In describing this vision of the Macintosh future, Steve Jobs repeatedly used the word "responsibility" to describe Apple's role in providing the "best user experience" possible. Here, responsibility, in its purest sense, means accepting an obligation to serve the Macintosh user with an unsurpassed computing environment, and if Steve Jobs really means that, consumers will have an undeniable reason to turn to Apple.

There is always the possibility that Steve was playing fast and loose with his choice of words. Corporate euphemism has a long, ignoble tradition of spinning a rosy glow of verbiage around the avaricious and often mundane goals of financial growth. His meaning could be interpreted from afar as striving for a competitive edge, pure and simple, but I had the benefit of watching the keynote in person, from a few short yards away, where I could observe the man as he made that statement, watch his face, his body language, even see the glint in his eyes. If my ability to judge a person's sincerity is to be trusted, then I assure you of one thing &endash; he meant precisely what he said. Apple is taking this responsibility very seriously.

The iCEO is dead, long live the iCEO

But this is a cynical world and already the new vision of the Macintosh future has been diminished by some as merely another marketing strategy of yet another greedy corporation with dot.com aspirations. If I were the principal architect of a noble venture that was subject to such predictable debasement, I would look for a means to assure the world that I was serious about my commitment, but how would I do that?

If I were Steve Jobs, and if I meant what I said about taking responsibility for the future of the customer experience, I would drop the word "interim" from my title and tell the world that I was committed to making it happen. He did just that.

My friends, I propose that the glory days of Apple are yet to come.

For a more detailed discussion of Apple's market positioning

check out Off to the Rhino Races at MacOPINION. You will

also find a remarkable description of rhinoceros biology.

Copyright 2000, Del Miller. All rights reserved.

Del also writes the "Difference Engine" column at www.macopinion.com

.

Friday, 10-Feb-2012 12:49:59 EST